Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai is inNew Delhi  this week for the first time as head of government. The sights and sounds of the Indian capital will be familiar to him, having done his PhD from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) and spent most of the war years in and out of Noida. The Indian media has been gushing about Bhattarai being one of their own ever since he was elected nearly two months ago.

Bhattarai’s advisers have warned the press not seek dramatic breakthroughs on issues like the Indo-Nepal Treaty, regulating the border, or water deals. He doesn’t have a choice since he heads a shaky coalition, and party colleagues are itching to pull the rug from under him.

New Delhi  has decided that it can do business with Bhattarai, but it should also be realistic enough to know that whatever is agreed in New Delhi  the prime minister will find it difficult to sell to his own party, let alone to the opposition. As part of his strategy to undermine his rival, Pushpa Kamal Dahal has hung an albatross around Bhattarai’s neck by publicly calling him an Indian lackey.

That said, Bhattarai should try to take his visit beyond symbolism. Pomp and ceremony will not redress our yawning balance of payments deficit with India. It is important to know what is important to Delhi, and try to get from them what is important to us. Too often in the past, Nepali officialdom has been so insecure about India, and so sure that we will get bullied, that we have stonewalled.

Lately, through various channels, the New Delhi  establishment has let us know that its primary concern is “security”. This includes the gamut of issues from infiltration of terrorists and underworld criminals across the open border, to extradition, allowing air marshals in flights and controlling fake Indian currency. So far, fears of backlash have held back Nepal’s political leaders from agreeing to anything that would erode our sovereign rights. This is the same misplaced nationalism that produced that ridiculous airport ramp 50 cm above the tarmac, just to prove that Indian security wasn’t frisking passengers on Nepali territory.

It’s time to transcend such hollow symbolism and address the real issues that affect our nationalism and sovereignty: the growing trade deficit with India, the fact that two million Nepalis are working in India, the huge lines in Pokhara of recruits wishing to join the Indian Army, and the paralyzing disunity among Kathmandu rulers that is undermining our national interest.

Indian investors have pulled out, and those still here are being harassed by national and local extortionists. Bhattarai’s party says it wants to renegotiate 14 hydropower projects with Indian investors that were approved by the all-party government in 2007-8. How is the prime minister going to assure them that it’s not a case of his party wanting its cut?

On the Indian side, we see a new willingness to engage with the Maoists and a realization that the past policy of open intervention was counterproductive. A stable Nepal  is in India’s national interest, keeping Nepal  politically weak and economically backward will prolong the instability.

Perhaps the most important message Indian leaders can give Baburam Bhattarai is something he doesn’t seem to have learnt at JNU: that there is no alternative to democracy, pluralism, rule of law and non-violent politics.

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Photo Essay by TAKAAKI YAGISAWA

When Radha Mainali went to see her husband last month in prison, he thought she had come to take him out. Still, Radha says his morale was high and he was confident he would be released soon. “I had been living like a widow these past 15 years, our daughters haven’t been able to grow up with their father. But for the first time there is hope,” Radha told Nepali Times last week in Kathmandu. “I am thankful to all our Japanese friends who have helped to prove that my husband is innocent and wrongly imprisoned.”

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Govinda Mainali in 1997 at the Indian restaurant where he worked. He was due to return to Nepal a few months after this picture was taken. (ALL PICS: KYOHEI IMAI)

KUNDA DIXIT

New DNA evidence has prompted Japanese activists and relatives of a Nepali man serving life sentence for the murder of a woman in Tokyo’s Shibuya district in 1997 to call for a retrial and acquittal.

Govinda Mainali, now 44, was convicted of killing a 39-year-old woman after paying to have sex with her. But new DNA techniques used to re-examine evidence shows that the semen found inside the victim’s body was not Govinda’s, and matches that of another person’s hair found in the room where she was killed.

The last time I met Govinda was in November 2006 in a jail in Yokohama. At that time he was required to speak in Japanese through an interpreter, but we did manage to sneak in a few sentences in Nepali. He had put on some weight and was balder than the last time I’d seen him five years previously in a detention centre in Tokyo, and he was thankful for support from Japanese activists who were paying for visits by his wife and daughters as well as defending his innocence.

Govinda’s brother and wife hold hands in solidarity with Japanese men recently acquitted after new DNA evidence found him to be innocent.

I asked him if I should keep sending him Nepali magazines because the news from home was so depressing. “Any news from Nepal cheers me up,” he had replied.

During both meetings, Govinda had convincingly maintained his innocence. He admitted having paid for sex, but said he had been framed for the murder of the woman who worked for the Tokyo Electric Power Company by day, and was a prostitute by night.

Now, new DNA techniques not available in 1997, prove that there was another man involved who could be the killer. Govinda’s lawyer, Katsuhiko Tsukuda, says the “basis for the conviction has collapsed”. Japanese legal experts say there is now sufficient grounds for a retrial because the original court decision had not taken this evidence into account.

In 2000, the Tokyo District Court had acquitted Govinda saying there wasn’t enough evidence. But the Tokyo High Public Prosecutors Office requested a remand,  and the Tokyo High Court approved it. The High Court later found him guilty, and the Supreme Court upheld the ruling sentencing him to life imprisonment in 2003. The police was under pressure to make an arrest in the high profile case, and reportedly suppressed evidence.

The apartment in Tokyo’s Shibuya district where the Japanese woman was murdered in 1997.

A group of Japanese with links to Nepal set up the ‘Justice for Govinda’ pressure group that has been struggling to keep the case alive and to prove his innocence. Over the years, the group has been paying to fly Govinda’s wife, Radha, and two daughters to Tokyo to visit him in prison to keep his morale up. I asked Junko Hasumi of ‘Justice for Govinda’ the reason why her group had taken up the case so relentlessly. “Most of our members have never been to Nepal,” she replied, “they are involved because they know there has been a miscarriage of justice, and it is to draw attention to the need to reform Japan’s judicial system.”

After the new DNA evidence came out, ‘Justice for Govinda’ issued a statement saying he should be released immediately. There are suspicions that the Tokyo High Public Prosecutors Office is trying to delay or even stop the retrial by suppressing 42 pieces of new evidence that could prove Govinda did not commit the crime.

Govinda’s case has become headline news in Japan again, with regular follow-ups in the mainstream newspapers and television. All major stations covered the visit last month by Radha and Govinda’s brother, Indra Mainali, to the Yokohama prison.

Radha Mainali faces the Japanese media last month in Yokohama after seeing her husband in prison. (PIC: TAKAAKI YAGISAWA)

On return to Kathmandu, Radha told Nepali Times: “I had been living like a widow these past 15 years, our daughters haven’t been able to grow up with their father. But for the first time there is hope.”

When he saw Radha in prison last month, Govinda thought she had gone to get him out. “But his morale is high and he is convinced that he will be acquitted soon,” she added.

Indra Mainali says his brother was happy to see them, but is puzzled about why he still needs to be prison. “He is also worried that he will not be able to see our mother who is in frail health,” he said.

Govinda’s defence team say there is precedence from recent acquittals based on new DNA evidence in other murder cases in Japan, and lawyers are confident the High Court will accept retrial.

Court will accept retrial.

The Japan Federation of Bar Associations also came out publicly in support of a retrial based on new evidence because of recent cases of innocents being incarcerated. It has accused prosecutors of withholding key evidence that would exonerate the accused. The Federation’s Keita Miyamura told the Japanese media there were serious questions about miscarriage of justice and called for judicial reform: “We must create a system under which all evidence is disclosed.”

In 2001, Japanese activists took me to interview Shinichi Sano, the author of a book on Govinda, Tokyo Electric Power Co. Office Lady Murder Case. After visiting Govinda in prison and traveling to Ilam to interview his family, Sano was convinced of Govinda’s innocence.

He told me he wrote the book to expose Japan’s judicial system and the hidden tensions within Japanese society. “In Japan we have a saying: when something is rotten, cover it up,” he said. “And that is what happened, the truth was so ugly we tried to cover it up. And have a fall guy from a poor country that didn’t dare make a fuss take all the blame.”

See also:
Govinda by Kunda Dixit, #39

‘Something that he never did’ by Shinichi Sano’, #189

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Yet another crash. Yet more tv visuals of police and army searching the scattered wreckage. Once again, bodies being unloaded from the army chopper at the airport. Reporters interviewing grieving family members. The news beamed worldwide.

And once more: the questions about aviation safety. How could this happen yet again? The inevitable speculation about causes: pilot error, air craft malfunction, lax enforcement of aviation rules.

Up on the ridge of Kot Danda on the eastern rim of Kathmandu Valley on Sunday morning, the clouds hung low and those questions sounded banal, almost callous. The lifeless forms of passengers with horrific bruises were being ferried in stretchers to a waiting helicopter. Amidst the wreckage, a ladies’ shoe, a camera bag, bits of clothing and shredded seats.

The army rescue helicopter had finally landed nearby after circling to find a gap in the clouds. Hundreds of people from surrounding villages gathered immediately, sometimes blocking rescue vehicles with their motorcycles parked in the narrow road leading to the accident site.

The Buddha Air Beechcraft 1900D with 19 people on board, including three crew, was returning halfway from a Mt Everest sightseeing flight because the mountains were covered up by late monsoon clouds.

There were two other aircraft ahead of the Buddha Air, and the pilot appears to have flown lower than he should have to keep below the cloud ceiling. He was also too far to the east probably to keep distance with preceding traffic. It hit the steep south-facing slope at about 7:21 am.

On the vertical wall of a terrace farm there is a long scar ploughed by the right wing of the plane as it hit. The gash is at an incline, indicating the crew may have been trying to pull up at the last moment.

The aircraft hit the mountain wall, its fuel tanks exploded and the cabin
catapulted up the slope beyond a road. Part of the tail and left wing
disintegrated and fell into some trees. The starboard engine was hurled
40m on another side of the mountain.

Further inspections have to be carried out of both engines, the black box and cockpit voice recorder will give an indication of any malfunction. But the crash had all the hallmarks of what aviation safety experts call Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT).

Nearly all the crashes that have occurred in Nepal in the past 60 years
have been CFIT (see list below). Even in good weather, Nepal’s rugged
Himalayan terrain is difficult to fly in, during the monsoon with the
mountains covered in clouds it becomes even more hazardous.

Pilots being trained in Nepal are told “Never fly into clouds unless you
know exactly where you are because clouds have rocks in them”. It is not supposed to be a joke.

Too many lives have been lost to preventable crashes. Too many lessons have been not been learnt. Too many investigation reports have just gathered dust.

No air crash has only one reason, usually it is a combination of factors. In Nepal it can be weather, terrain, lack of training, pilot error and the lack of equipment. New equipment like state-of-the-art satellite-based ground proximity warning systems on board, or the new RNP-AR approaches to airports in mountainous terrain would make CFIT less likely.

The human factors are not just to do with the pilots, it is about airline policy that recruits pilots depending on whether or not they can afford to pay up to Rs 2.5 million for their simulator training and conversion licenses. Salaries and poor pay mean the best pilots migrate to work in foreign airlines.

The following table is a list of crashes in Nepal since 1990 in which CFIT
is suspected. Most of the accidents occurred in the monsoon and all were
planes that flew into mountains in cloud:

Date            Airline Equipment         Fatalities          Location
30-7-92      Thai Airbus310                      113                          Langtang
30-9-92      Pakistan Airbus310              157                         Lalitpur
31-8-97      Everest Do228                        18                             Bharatpur
24-8-93      Lumbini DHC-6                       18                            Kaski
9-6-99        Luftansa Boeing727              5                              Kathmandu
5-10-98      Necon Air HS748                  15                            Kathmandu
27-6-00    Nepal Air DHC-6                     25                            Dadeldhura
22-9-02     Shangri La DHC-6                   18                            Kaski
25-5-05     Yeti DHC-6                                3                              Lamjura
23-9-10      Shree Air MI-17                     24                           Ghunsa
8-10-08      Yeti DHC-6                               18                           Lukla
24-8-10      Agni Air Do-228                     14                           Makwanpur
15-12-10    Tara Air DHC-6                       22                          Okhaldhunga

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Army men lift a person wounded in a landslide following Sunday's earthquake in Bhedetar, Dhankuta. (Picture: Sita Mademba)

Twenty-four hours after the 6.9 magnitude earthquake on Sunday night, it is becoming clear from Sikkim and Nepal that the death toll will be much higher than the official 60.

Large parts of northern Sikkim are still unreachable by road because of landslide blocked highways as well as heavy rain and overcast monsoon skies over the region. The same goes for the districts of Taplejung, Sankhuwasabha and Panchthar.

So far, the only reports that have come in are from district capitals and towns with phone connections. Everything else beyond that is still unreachable.

The biggest danger is that since the top soil is saturated because of three months of monsoon rains, the earthquake combined with more rain has increased the probability of massive landslides blocking the tributaries of the Arun and Tamor rivers. Experts say these could impound large lakes that then burst, unleashing destructive flash-floods downstream.

Such disasters have occurred before in the Himalaya, the floods killing more people than the original earthquake. Yet, neither the Nepal Army nor the home ministry felt it necessary to conduct an aerial inspection of eastern Nepal and its rivers on Monday morning even though the rains had let up.

The other danger is of glacial lakes bursting. Eastern Nepal, Sikkim, Southern Tibet and Bhutan have at least 200 glacial lakes that are dangerously swollen due to the effects of global warming. In the monsoon, there is even more water in these lakes. The worst-case scenario for geologists is a multiple glacial lake outbursts caused by a major earthquake that could send destructive “Himalayan tsunamis” racing down the narrow valleys downstream.

So far, there haven’t been any reports of flash floods on rivers. Just like in a tsunami, locals have to watch out for rivers suddenly running dry, indicating a blockage upstream. Which is why it is grossly negligent of the government not to have conducted aerial reconnaissance or requested satellite imagery to pinpoint potential dangers.

The US Geological Survey says that the M6.9 earthquake on Sunday evening was preceded 20 seconds earlier by a M6.0 foreshock on the border of Taplejung district and Sikkim, just southwest of Mt Kangchenjunga, the third highest mountain in the world. The two big M5 aftershocks, however, took place well within Sikkim.

Geo-technical experts say that preliminery indications show that the main quake was caused by a “strike-slip” fault within the Eurasian or Indian plate below it, and not because of a rupture in the main boundary of the two plates.

Indian scientists estimate that the slip could have lifted the entire mountainside by a couple of metres in a southerly direction. Since the earthquake was relatively deep, the tremor was felt over a wide area in the region from Delhi to Mandalay, but with comparatively low shaking except in the immediately vicinity.

The aftershocks appear to have occurred on a different fault system altogether, which has led some scientists to suspect that there is still some unreleased tension in the rupture that caused the main quake.

While scientists analyse seismic data for clues about the kind of rupture, the faultlines, depth and the aftershocks, for India and Nepal this is a dress rehersal for the next Big One. Nepal, especially its western half, hasn’t seen a major M8 earthquake for 300 years, indicating that there is tremendous tension building up in the colliding tectonic plates below.

Sunday’s quakes could have loosened up some of the faultlines, hastening a break. A major earthquake is long overdue, and if it hits the casualty level and physical damage of Sunday evening’s quake will look like picnic.

Earthquake experts like to say that quakes don’t kill people, buildings do. Which is why it is important to strictly enforce building codes, retrofit schools and hospitals, and prepare for quakes with storage of digging equipment, food, water and shelters in open spaces. You have to prepare for many months of provisions since relief will be late in arriving because highways and airports will be destroyed.

Nepal’s political instability has meant that the Constituent Assembly is too distracted to ratify an important Disaster Management Legislation.

In some communities of Kathmandu valley, neighbourhoods are not waiting for the government to get its act together and setting up disaster preparedness groups.

When the disaster strikes, as one day it will, it won’t be the government that will come to our aid. Families and communities have to help themselves the best they can.

See also:
Not if, but when, #536

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रुपा सहकारीका संस्थापक अध्यक्ष रामचन्द्र सापकोटा र वर्तमान अध्यक्ष लेखनाथ ढकाल

त्यस्तै व्यक्तिहरूको खोजीमा म हालसालै कास्की जिल्लाको रुपातालको छेउछाउमा पुगेको थिएँ। वर्षाको तिरमिराउने हरियाली, ढपक्क ढाकिएका मखमल जस्ता पहाड र जताततै छहरा, कुलो र खोलाबाट खस्ने पानीको आवाजका बीच।

बिहान ६:३० बजे रुपातालको पारिपट्टि तालबेसीतिरबाट चार वटा डुङ्गा देखा परे। ऐना जस्तो ताललाई डुङ्गाका छालले खलबल्यायो। किनारमा रुपाताल पुनर्स्थापना तथा मत्स्यपालन केन्द्रका कर्मचारीले तराजु र क्याल्कुलेटर तयार पारे। माछा किन्न पोखरा र लेखनाथदेखि आएकाहरू पैसा ठिक्क पार्न थाले। डुङ्गाहरू किनारा लागेपछि धमाधम सेता–सेता टल्किने माछाहरू भित्र्याइए र तौलिँदै बेचिए। ४५ मिनेटमा रु.१० हजारको माछा बिक्री भयो। गत वर्ष मात्र माछा बेचेर रुपा सहकारीले रु.६५ लाख कमायो। माछा पाल्ने एनक्लोजर बनाउन, मर्मत गर्न, भुराहरू किन्न र तालको प्राकृतिक संरक्षण गर्न खर्च भयो। अरू आठ लाख रूखहरू जोगाएर भूक्षय रोकेबापत रुपातालको जलाधारमा पर्ने १७ वटा सामुदायिक वन समूहलाई वितरण गर्‍यो। सहकारीले जलाधारका १९ गाविसका स्कूलहरूलाई अनुदान र विद्यार्थीहरूलाई छात्रवृत्ति वितरण पनि गर्छ।

सहकारीका संस्थापक अध्यक्ष लेखनाथ ढकालका अनुसार यस प्रकारको संरचनाले रुपातालको दिगो विकासमा मद्दत पुर्‍याएको छ। उनी भन्छन्, “आर्थिक विकासको लागि प्रकृति विनास गर्नु पर्दोरहेनछ भन्ने कुरा हामीले देखायौं। अझ् सहकारीको विकाससँगसँगै संरक्षणको लागि लगानी गर्ने क्षमताको पनि वृद्धि भएको छ।”

रुपातालको ठीक डिलमा पर्ने चौरगाउँको प्रतिज्ञा बचत तथा ऋण सहकारीले सदस्य किसानहरूको समृद्धिको लागि नयाँ धानको विकास, विभिन्न जातका स्थानीय तरकारी, फलफूल र जडिबुटीको संरक्षण गरेको छ। सहकारीकी सीता खड्का भन्छिन्, “हामीलाई अब दाताहरू चाहिँदैन, हामी गाउँमै कृषिजन्य रोजगार सिर्जना गरेर युवाहरूको पलायन रोक्न चाहन्छौं।”

चौरगाउँकै जयबहादुर थापा आफ्नो पुर्ख्यौली वैद्य पेशालाई निरन्तरता दिँदै १५० प्रजातिका जडिबुटी उमारेर बेच्दैछन्, आफ्नै बगैंचाबाट। जयबहादुरकी छिमेकी मैना थापा बेसीको धानखेत गोडेर डोको बोक्दै उकालो चढ्दैछिन्। उनी आफूले फलाएको अनदी चामलको आफैं बजार विस्तारमा लागेकी छिन्। मैनाका छोरा राहुल आमालाई मद्दत गर्छन् र वर्षभरिको कमाइले गर्दा कामको खोजीमा शहरतिर र्झ्नु परेको छैन भन्छन्।

अझ् माथि वेगनासपट्टिको डाँडामा सूर्य अधिकारी आफ्नो नमुना अर्गानिक फार्ममा व्यस्त छन्। एकपटक गुल्मीबाट ल्याएको १२ बोट कफी वेगनासको हावापानीमा फस्टाएपछि अहिले वेगनासको कफी संसारभरि प्रसिद्ध छ र वरिपरिका गाउँहरूबाट समेत २२ टन कफी उत्पादन हुन्छ। अधिकारी भन्छन्, “मैले बुझेको के भने प्रकृतिका नियमहरू तोड्नु हुँदोरहेनछ र सबैभन्दा माटोलाई जोगाउनु पर्दोरहेछ। माटोलाई विषालु रसायनबाट बचाउनुपर्छ र उर्वर राख्नुपर्छ।” उनका अनुसार जैविक र कृषिको विविधतामा संसारकै सबैभन्दा धनी इलाका हो, कास्की। अनेकथरी वनस्पतिबाहेक यहाँ १६ खालका धान, १२ किसिमको कोदो, १२ किसिमका तरुल, दर्जनौंखाले कर्कलो र अरू तरकारी छन्। “हामीलाई प्रकृतिले सुम्पेको हो यो, यसलाई जोगाउनु हाम्रो कर्तव्य हो। लोप भए भने कहिल्यै फर्केर आउँदैनन्”, अधिकारी भन्छन्। उनी कास्कीका कृषकका लागि वेगनास र रुपाका जलाधार क्षेत्रलाई कृषि संरक्षण इलाका घोषणा गर्नुपर्ने बताउँछन्, जस्तै हामी वन्यजन्तुका लागि राष्ट्रिय निकुञ्ज वा वन्यजन्तु आरक्ष संरक्षण गर्छौं। सूर्य अधिकारी आफूलाई हौसला र ज्ञान दिने पोखराको गैसस ‘लिवर्ड’ लाई जस दिन्छन्।

काठमाडौंको प्रदूषित हावापानी, विषालु राजनीति र असंवेदनशील समाजमा उब्जने नैराश्यताबाट भाग्न कास्की जाँदा र किसानहरूसँग कुराकानी गर्दा मेरो मन ‘रिचार्ज’ भए जस्तो लाग्यो।

केले गर्दा रुपा र वेगनासवासीहरूमा यत्रो जाँगर, जोश र भविष्यप्रति आशा जागेको होला? नेपालका शहरमा नेताहरूलाई खोक्रो भाषण मात्र दिन आउँछ। उनीहरूका कार्यकर्ता नारा जुलुसबाहेक केही गर्दैनन्। तर यहाँ सूर्य, मैना, राहुल, जयबहादुर, सीता, लेखनाथहरू हात खियाएर, माटो जोगाएर, प्रकृतिको संरक्षण गरेर आफ्नो र समुदायको उन्नति गरिरहेका छन्।

Surya Adhikari ( ALL PICS: JANA ASENBRENNEROVA)

Sita Khadka

Rahul Thapa

Earning from nature to pay for its upkeep#565

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Nepal can’t afford to base its foreign policy on the insecurity of its neighbors, it must try to put them at ease and benefit from trade and investment.

In 1770, Nepal’s founding king called the country “a yam between two boulders”, a country squeezed between China to the north and British India to the south. More than 240 years later, just before he was elected prime minister of the country, Nepal’s Maoist leader Prachanda paraphrased the king: “Nepal,” he said, “is a dynamite between two rocks.”

Prachanda was trying to get India and China to take him more seriously by playing Nepal’s giant neighbours off against each other. He should have known better. The new Himalayan Great Game is not about getting regional superpowers to fight over you, but to get them to cooperate in lifting you out of poverty. Nepal can’t afford to base its foreign policy on the insecurity of its neighbours, it must try to put them at ease and benefit from trade and investment.

In terms of per capita income, Nepal is the poorest country in Asia. Its economy, ravaged by a decade of war and poor governance, is growing at 3% or less. But it borders two economies with more than a billion people each and both growing in the double digits. All Nepal has to do is hitch its wagon to the two locomotives in its vicinity.

But successive rulers in Kathmandu have found it difficult to resist the temptation to counterbalance the country’s overwhelming economic dependence on India by bending over backwards to cosy up to China politically. Even when there is concrete proof that this policy is counterproductive, they never learn.

China’s main preoccupation in Nepal is not India, but Tibet. It wants stability in Nepal so that the country doesn’t become a springboard for
Tibetan nationalism. In this it is deeply suspicious not of India, but of the United States. After Rajiv Gandhi and Deng Xiaoping in 1988 reaffirmed the main chain of the Himalayan mountains as the boundary between their spheres of influence, India and China are too preoccupied with their economies to be distracted by a quarrel over Nepal or Bhutan.

India and China may compete globally for resources and influence, but the last thing they need is an unstable Himalaya. China is too busy pouring money into Tibet’s infrastructure and raising living standards so it can lure Tibetans away from the lamas who control Tibetan Buddhism.

India too would not benefit from a chronically unstable Nepal that would delay its plans to jointly harness Nepal’s rivers. Both have a convergence of interest in investing in Nepal’s hydropower, tourism and trade and create jobs for long term stability. And all three countries would benefit from using Nepal as a transit for rail and road links for trade.

Trying to force a proxy war between China and India when both want the same thing is suicidal, but try telling this to politicians in Nepal.
After he resigned from prime ministership in 2009, Prachanda has been to China several times. The message from Chinese officials has always been: Sort it out with India, don’t bother us, we’re busy.

To be sure, there are hawks in the military-intelligence establishments in both New Delhi and Beijing who remember 1962 and benefit from constant tension in bilateral ties. The latest reason for mutual suspicion is an outlandish plan by an obscure Chinese quango to pump money into Lumbini and turn it into a Buddhist theme park. China is obviously strategising to co-opt Tibetan Buddhism in the post-Dalai Lama era. But Sino-Indian economic ties should be strong enough to be affected by these hiccups.

India and China may pretend to shadow box over Nepal from time to time, but neither would like to have the headache of a failed state between them. That would be real dynamite.

This article was part of the Times of INdia’s series on ‘Neighbour’s Envy
Not Really’

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